If someone tells you to go see the northern lights "sometime," the answer is now — not next year, not in five years. We're living through one of the strongest aurora windows in over a decade, and it won't last. Here's the science behind why 2025–2027 is a rare opportunity, and what it means for your trip.
What Is a Solar Cycle?
The sun follows an approximately 11-year cycle of activity, swinging between solar minimum (few sunspots, calm) and solar maximum (many sunspots, active). More sunspots mean more solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) — the eruptions that send charged particles toward Earth. When those particles interact with Earth's magnetic field, we get geomagnetic storms. Geomagnetic storms drive aurora. The chain is that simple.
Solar Cycle 25 began in December 2019. We reached solar maximum around late 2024–early 2025, and activity remains elevated well into 2026 and 2027. The previous maximum — Solar Cycle 24 — peaked around 2014 and was notably weak. Aurora chasers from that era remember long quiet stretches. This cycle is different.
Solar Cycle 25 Has Been a Surprise
When Solar Cycle 25 began, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center predicted a below-average or average cycle — another quiet one like Cycle 24. Those predictions turned out to be significantly wrong. Cycle 25 has tracked closer to the activity levels of Cycles 22 and 23, from the late 1980s and 1990s — some of the most aurora-rich years on record.
The evidence is visible in the event record. May 2024 produced the strongest geomagnetic storm in 20 years — a G5 extreme event that sent aurora visible as far south as Florida, Texas, and the Mediterranean. Multiple G3 and G4 storms have followed. Destinations that rarely see aurora — Inverness in Scotland, cities in northern Germany and the US Midwest — have had multiple active nights that would have been unremarkable years at solar minimum.
For dedicated aurora destinations like Tromsø and Fairbanks, the difference is dramatic. Instead of waiting three or four nights for a strong display, travellers during the current maximum are often seeing vivid aurora on their first clear night.
What This Means for Aurora Hunters
- More frequent Kp 5+ storms — the threshold where aurora becomes vivid, colourful, and visible at mid-latitudes. During solar minimum, these might happen a handful of times per year. During maximum, multiple per month.
- Aurora visible at lower latitudes more often — places like Inverness (which needs Kp 4–5) are seeing viable nights that are genuinely rare at other points in the cycle.
- Better baseline activity at high-latitude destinations — even "quiet" nights at Tromsø or Fairbanks show stronger-than-normal aurora because the baseline Kp is elevated.
- More red and purple displays — the rarest, most spectacular aurora colours appear during strong storms. During maximum, multi-colour displays are no longer once-in-a-decade events.
The Window Is Closing
Solar activity will begin to decline through 2027 and into 2028. The descent into solar minimum is gradual — there will still be good aurora nights in 2028 and 2029 — but the frequency of strong storms drops significantly. By 2030–2032, we'll be back in the kind of quiet conditions that frustrated aurora chasers during the mid-2010s.
The next solar maximum won't arrive until approximately 2035–2036. That's a decade away. If you've been putting off an aurora trip, this is the clearest possible signal: the window is still open, but it won't be for much longer.
The difference between aurora at solar maximum and solar minimum is not subtle. At minimum, you might spend five nights in Tromsø and see one faint glow. At maximum, you might see a full overhead display on your first clear night. Both experiences are "seeing the northern lights" — but they are not the same thing.